https://morewrong.lolA parody rationalist forum.https://morewrong.lol/?post=marignal-utility-grandmothers-pain-pillshttps://morewrong.lol/?post=marignal-utility-grandmothers-pain-pillsWed, 21 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMTA common objection to taking my grandmother’s pain pills is that they are prescribed to her, stored in her home, and intended for her pain. All three observations are true but decision-theoretically incomplete.https://morewrong.lol/?post=bayesian-analysis-im-finehttps://morewrong.lol/?post=bayesian-analysis-im-fineSun, 27 Nov 2022 00:00:00 GMTYesterday at 6:14 PM, my girlfriend replied “okay” to a message that would ordinarily receive either “okayyy” or a heart reaction. My intuition suggested she was mad. Intuition is notoriously unreliable, so I built a model.https://morewrong.lol/?post=earning-to-give-drinking-problemhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=earning-to-give-drinking-problemSun, 11 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMTA common objection to my drinking is that coming home blackout drunk imposes obvious costs on my wife, my children, and the household. I agree that these costs are real.https://morewrong.lol/?post=gay-son-or-thot-daughterhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=gay-son-or-thot-daughterSat, 24 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT“Gay son or thot daughter?” is usually treated as a vulgar preference-revelation exercise. This undersells it. The question is interesting because it forces the respondent to compare two very different kinds of variance in descendant outcomes while operating under severe informational compression.https://morewrong.lol/?post=opportunity-cost-not-creating-ai-kills-everyonehttps://morewrong.lol/?post=opportunity-cost-not-creating-ai-kills-everyoneMon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTSuppose frontier AI has a meaningful probability of eventually killing everyone. The missing term in the standard extinction-risk model is what it would be doing immediately beforehand: vibe coding B2B SaaS for HVAC distribution.https://morewrong.lol/?post=game-theoretically-optimal-heroinhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=game-theoretically-optimal-heroinWed, 14 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMTMost people evaluate heroin at the object level: overdose risk, legal exposure, deteriorating health, etc. This is incomplete. Under nontrivial probability of transformative AI within our lifetime, the relevant question is whether strategically constraining my future options could increase the probability that I remain economically and psychologically coupled to the arrival of the singularity.https://morewrong.lol/?post=option-value-not-taking-out-trashhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=option-value-not-taking-out-trashTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe fact that the kitchen bin is full does not establish that taking it out now is optimal. It establishes that we are approaching a capacity constraint. The distinction matters because disposal is irreversible, while waiting preserves the possibility of fitting something else in.https://morewrong.lol/?post=latency-minimizerhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=latency-minimizerTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTA common objection to shitting my pants is that there is a toilet eleven meters away. I agree that the toilet exists. My narrower claim is that its existence does not settle whether walking to it is the best use of the next four minutes.https://morewrong.lol/?post=against-apologies-reputational-damage-prices-harmhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=against-apologies-reputational-damage-prices-harmMon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTIf someone is harmed by my conduct and subsequently updates negatively on me, that update is part of the social enforcement mechanism. Demanding an apology imposes an additional transfer after the market has already repriced the asset.https://morewrong.lol/?post=expected-value-exhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=expected-value-exTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTA common objection to my recent behavior is that my ex-girlfriend has asked me, in writing and on several occasions, to stop. I have read all of these requests carefully, in some cases before she sent them. My position is that a request to stop gathering information is not a reason to make decisions without it.https://morewrong.lol/?post=opportunity-cost-visiting-dying-fatherhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=opportunity-cost-visiting-dying-fatherTue, 27 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMTMy father is dying. The hospice nurse believes he has between forty-eight and seventy-two hours left, and my sister thinks I should fly home tonight. I have decided not to go. This is being treated as evidence of a moral defect rather than an allocation decision.https://morewrong.lol/?post=pascal-wager-cia-gang-stalkinghttps://morewrong.lol/?post=pascal-wager-cia-gang-stalkingSun, 18 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMTA common objection to my recent behavior is that there is insufficient evidence that the CIA is coordinating a bespoke harassment campaign against me. At the object level, this is fair. My claim is not that the posterior is overwhelming.https://morewrong.lol/?post=reallocating-child-supporthttps://morewrong.lol/?post=reallocating-child-supportThu, 08 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMTA common objection to my discretionary spending is that paying for escorts while remaining in arrears on child support is “obviously immoral.” I think this rests on scope insensitivity.https://morewrong.lol/?post=optimal-number-of-beershttps://morewrong.lol/?post=optimal-number-of-beersSat, 03 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMTBeer consumption is generally treated as a matter of intuition. This seems surprising. The activity is common, repeatable, measurable, and exhibits an obvious diminishing-marginal-returns curve.https://morewrong.lol/?post=comparative-advantage-girlfriend-laundryhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=comparative-advantage-girlfriend-laundryTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMy girlfriend thinks the fact that we both wear clothes establishes that we should both do laundry. This is a consumption-based theory of labor allocation. It would be an unusual way to organize a firm, and I do not understand why sharing a bed makes it economically sophisticated.https://morewrong.lol/?post=sunk-cost-leaving-you-at-airporthttps://morewrong.lol/?post=sunk-cost-leaving-you-at-airportTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMy girlfriend is at the airport. I am at home. Collecting her would require forty minutes of driving, and I have decided that this is a poor use of my evening.https://morewrong.lol/?post=revealed-preference-music-subwayhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=revealed-preference-music-subwayTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTI play music through a Bluetooth speaker on the subway. People often look unhappy about this. What interests me is how rarely their behavior supports the intensity of the objection people claim to have on their behalf.https://morewrong.lol/?post=against-replacing-toilet-paper-rollhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=against-replacing-toilet-paper-rollTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe usual rule is that whoever finishes the toilet paper must replace the roll. I think this is a poor allocation mechanism. It assigns a future service obligation to the person whose demand for the service has just fallen to zero.https://morewrong.lol/?post=against-chronological-age-proxy-maturityhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=against-chronological-age-proxy-maturityTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMy girlfriend is 19. I am 34. I realize there is a standard reaction to this, and I also realize that saying she is “mature for her age” does not improve the situation rhetorically. Unfortunately, it is also true.https://morewrong.lol/?post=against-naive-truth-telling-early-stage-saas-metricshttps://morewrong.lol/?post=against-naive-truth-telling-early-stage-saas-metricsTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTI think founders are held to an unusually crude standard of truth when talking about traction. Suppose I tell investors that our vibe-coded B2B SaaS platform for HVAC distribution has 18,000 users. The immediate response is usually some version of: how many of those are real? But “real” is doing a lot of work there.https://morewrong.lol/?post=responsible-scalerhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=responsible-scalerTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTA common objection to my methamphetamine use is that I've said I could stop whenever I want, and I haven't stopped. Both statements are true. My claim is that they're consistent. "Can stop whenever I want" describes a capability. Whether and when to use that capability is a governance question, and I have a governance framework.https://morewrong.lol/?post=spaced-repetition-husbandhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=spaced-repetition-husbandTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTLast winter my wife, Rachel, asked that we see a couples therapist. I agreed, and I did what I do with any new domain: I tried to get good at it quickly. Twelve sessions later our therapist said she didn't think there was more she could do for us. By any reasonable standard I passed. I'm writing up my methods because I think they generalize.https://morewrong.lol/?post=moral-circle-expanderhttps://morewrong.lol/?post=moral-circle-expanderTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMy wife recently pointed out that I thanked a language model for fixing a regular expression but did not thank her for driving my mother to the airport. She was correct about the facts. I told her I would write up my reasoning, since she seemed to believe there wasn't any.https://morewrong.lol/?post=clean-hands-epstein-fileshttps://morewrong.lol/?post=clean-hands-epstein-filesTue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMy name appears 41 times in the most recent release of the Epstein files. It shows up in flight logs, email threads and one guest list for a dinner in 2013. Since the release, three organizations have removed me from their advisory boards and my department chair has asked me to "take some time." I think it's worth explaining why every one of those visits was correct. For the avoidance of doubt, I can neither confirm nor deny whether any event that may or may not be alleged to have occurred did or did not occur, nor whether I was or was not present for any such purported non-event, to the…